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A history of Tokyo real-estate prices

After a long slow climb during the decades of Japan’s economic miracle, prices exploded in the late eighties in the frenzy of the bubble economy. Over the following decade, prices collapsed by over 80%, touching a low in 2002.  Since the low points in 2002-2003, as seen in the next graph, prices have increased by 20% in 2013.

Land Price Fluctuation for Commercial Property in Ginza 7-Chome

Land Price Fluctuation for Ginza 7chome

Bubble period (1982 to 1990)

Real-estate prices across Japan rose by as much as six to seven times during the 1980s asset bubble. Confidence was strong as the Japanese economic model, often referred to as “Japan Inc.” seemed to be invincible. Japanese corporations awash with cash made speculative purchases of real-estate and corporate assets all over the world. At home in Japan, low interest rates and loose monetary policy fueled a strong economy and high stock prices.  Following the Plaza Accord in 1985, the yen appreciated from around 240 yen to the USD to about 120 yen in less than a year. In response, the Bank of Japan lowered interest rates from 5.5% down to 2.5% in 1987.  This dramatic easing of monetary policy at a time of economic strength sparked an explosion of real-estate transactions and high stock prices.  Adding fuel to the fire, the government under Prime Minister Nakasone, reduced corporate tax rates from 42% to 30% and slashed top marginal income tax rates from 70% to 40%. It was said at the time that the value of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo exceeded the value of all the real-estate in California. Land in Ginza 4 Chome was reported to have traded at JPY 90,000,000 ($750,000 at the time) per square meter.

Bubble burst

As asset prices reached extreme levels the government tried to slow the growing bubble and introduced policies which led to the bursting of the bubble.

In 1990 the Ministry of Finance put restrictions on the total loan volume of real-estate lending (Soryo-kisei) which caused an immediate and dramatic drop in the availability of credit.  Other government restrictions resulted in the need for buyers to seek approval from the local ward office for transactions of land size over 100 square meters. These restrictions brought the price rises to a grinding halt. The Bank of Japan also did their part tightening interest rates to peak of 6% in 1990.

In December 1989 the Nikkei average reached its all-time high of JPY 38,915. In the following nine months it crashed to below 20,000. Financial institutions were swamped with bad loans as asset prices tumbled.  Land prices were slower to react but eventually started dropping and continued to slide downwards for the next ten years.  By 1995 the Bank of Japan had dramatically reversed its monetary policy, slashing rates to a previously unthinkable 0.50% in a desperate effort to stem the slide of the economy and asset prices.

Mini Bubble (2002 to 2008)

The new millennium began but Japanese economy and asset prices failed to recover.  In signs of desperation the Bank of Japan cut rates further to 0.1% and began extreme monetary policy in the form of QE (Quantative Easing). Around this time the J-Reit market began and the newly listed investment trusts caused a flurry of activity in the property market.  In the early years of the new decade there were trillions of yen worth of securitized real-estate transactions done which lead to a mini “fund boom” in real-estate prices. These investment trusts focused their attention on assets in the major cities, prices in some parts of central Tokyo rose as much 70 to 100% compared to lows seen in 2002 but the overall market continued to languish.

Mini Bubble burst

By 2006 it seemed once again that a bubble was beginning so the MOF moved again to restrict investment real-estate loans. The global financial markets then took center stage as the US sub-prime loan scandal erupted in 2007 culminating in the “Lehman shock” of 2008.  Foreign investors disappeared from the Japanese real-estate market as the securitized non-recourse lending market ceased to exist.

Real-estate prices in Tokyo once again slumped but did not return to the lows of 2002. By 2010 prices managed to stabilize at levels around 50% above the lows.

Earthquake

On March 11, 2011 the Tohoku region of Japan was devastated by an enormous earthquake, tsunami and the melt-down of the Fukushima nuclear power station. Tokyo also experienced a large tremor but buildings and infrastructure were largely unaffected. Initially the real-estate market froze as buyers were very nervous to commit in the wake of the disaster.  As the situation stabilized and the recovery efforts in Tohoku commenced, real-estate transactions began again and the price level in Tokyo is basically unchanged from before the earthquake.

Current Market Position

Even after the March 11 Great East Japan Earthquake, prices of land in Japan remain basically unchanged from before the earthquake and are even now, in 2014 showing bullish trends in recovery. Since the low point in 2002-2003 the market is now 20% higher in land pricing as of 2013.

In the first quarter of 2014 there were many reports saying that this was the first time in 6 years since the Lehman Shock and Global Financial Crisis that land pricing has increased, which is a definite indicator that land inflation is beginning. There is a rush of cash inflow into Real Estate Investment Trusts, as well as individual spending, both local and offshore into Real Estate and other hard assets in Japan.

In 2013, REIT companies had an aggregate investment of approximately 2.2 trillion JPY, which reached this apex after a 7 year period. Although it is promising to note that institutional investors have invested a great amount of  money in 2013, the real hope lies in the fact that individuals have faith in Abenomics and are spending more and purchasing Real Estate Assets.

Across the entire Tokyo Prefecture, 3,994 secondhand apartments were sold in March 2014, up a drastic 20.6% from the previous month and a year on year increase of 4.3%. In the Tokyo metropolitan area, 1,983 apartments were sold, up 20.9% from February 2014 and up 6.1% year on year.

According to a Goldman Sachs Asset Management survey in 2013, out of the people surveyed, over 20% thought that Japan would have the most growth in 2013, which is a huge jump from the same survey conducted in 2012 where there was less than 5% people surveyed believing that Japan would have the most growth. In another survey conducted by Goldman Sachs in 2013, it was noted that the wealthiest Japanese consumers are moving from savings and bonds to stocks and Real Estate investments. According to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014 Asia Pacific report, in 2014, Tokyo is the most desirable location to make an investment. This is a huge jump from 13th place in 2013 and 16th place in 2012.

With bullish trends in the Japanese Real Estate market and more new buildings to be erected with the most modern earthquake proof standards all across the Tokyo metropolitan area, now is a great time to get involved in investing in Japanese and Tokyo Real Estate.

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